Weather to heat up at Paris Olympics after chance of rain at Opening Ceremonies (2024)

Should temperatures climb into the 90s (32 to 37 degrees Celsius), which is most probable in southern France, athletes and spectators would have to take more precautions to reduce the risk of heat illness. Paris and the rest of France have experienced multiple deadly heat waves in recent years as human-caused climate change has increased average temperatures and the frequency of hot days.

The forecast

Temperatures: Weather models show highs in Paris from 75 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit (24 to 27 degrees Celsius) on Friday (the day of the Opening Ceremonies) and Sunday, with cooler highs in the low 70s (21 to 22 Celsius) on Saturday.

Forecast temperatures trend warmer early next week, with highs possibly approaching 90 on Tuesday (32 Celsius), before pulling back into the 80s (27 to 32 Celsius) for the rest of the week. The average high at this time of year is near 80 (27 Celsius).

Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the upper 50s to mid-60s (14 to 19 Celsius).

Soccer venues in southern and central France — in Marseille, Bordeaux, Saint-Etienne and Lyon — should be at least a few degrees warmer than Paris, with some models predicting significantly hotter highs in the 90s (32 to 37 degrees Celsius) next week. Overnight lows should be several degrees warmer in southern and central France, as well, in the mid-60s to low 70s (19 to 23 Celsius).

Precipitation and clouds: Models predict minimal amounts of rain through the first week of the Games, although light showers are possible around Paris at times Friday and Saturday as a cool front moves through the region. Another chance of showers could arrive around the middle of next week. Models are tending to show more clouds on Friday into the weekend, and more sun during the weekdays that follow.

Wind: No major windstorm is expected through at least the first week. However, gusty winds could affect the sailing competition in Marseille between Wednesday and Friday.

It’s important to note that model forecasts a week or more into the future can sometimes have significant errors. MeteoFrance, the country’s national weather service, expects next week’s weather in France to be “generally dry with some wetter periods possible in the north” and above-normal temperatures, while “no dominant scenario” has emerged for the following week.

Several international weather organizations, including the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, are collaborating to provide Olympics organizers with detailed forecasts of weather and air quality. Meteorologists are keeping their eye on areas of intense heat that have boosted temperatures in Spain and southeastern Europe past 100 degrees (38 Celsius) in recent weeks.

Hot days in Paris happening more often

The potential for a heat wave during the Paris Olympics, being held during what are typically the city’s hottest weeks of the year, has drawn much attention from both scientists and athletes. Recent high temperatures on July 26, when the Games open, have ranged from 75 to 102 degrees Fahrenheit (24 to 39 Celsius).

The average temperature in Paris during late July and early August has warmed by more than five degrees since 1924, the last time the city hosted the Olympics, according to a report published last month. In that time, the nonprofit Climate Central says, “scorching days” with highs of 86 (30 Celsius) or more have become nearly three times as frequent in Paris.

France has experienced many deadly heat waves in recent years:

Researchers have found that human-caused climate change is making heat waves in Europe and other parts of the world hotter than they otherwise would have been.

How heat affects Olympic athletes

Heat was a major factor at the 2021 Olympic Games in Tokyo, postponed from 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Tokyo was considered the hottest Olympics ever, with daytime highs in the 90s (32 to 37 degrees Celsius) and a heat index as high as 109 (43 Celsius) causing a Russian archer to collapse and a Spanish tennis player to retire early from a match, both because of heatstroke. To combat the heat, officials added extra break time during tennis matches and moved the marathon competition north to Sapporo.

A publication on the Olympics website, titled “Beat the Heat,” warns that “hot and humid ambient conditions limit heat dissipation capacity during exercise, impairing endurance performance and increasing the risk of exertional heat illness such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat stroke.” Athletes are encouraged to train in hot weather “before any event where hot and/or humid conditions are possible” to improve performance and reduce the risk of heat illness.

It’s not just hot daytime temperatures that can cause problems, but also warm nights. Sweltering nights with low temperatures of 68 (20 degrees Celsius) or higher are 20 times as frequent in Paris now than they were 100 years ago, according to Climate Central.

Concerned about a lack of air conditioning in the athletes village, the United States and several other countries are bringing portable units to ensure a comfortable sleeping environment for their athletes.